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Oscar Predictions 2013

February 24, 2013 Leave a comment Go to comments


I managed, under the wire, to see all nine Best Picture nominees, but I’ve been out of town this weekend and not all the reviews are finished. Look back this week for Silver Linings Playbook, Amour, and Django Unchained (plus some others).

Post-show results are in red.

Best Picture

Prediction: Argo

Preference: Zero Dark Thirty

Yep, Argo won.

Best Actor

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Preference: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Yep, Daniel Day-Lewis won.

Best Actress

Prediction: I legitimately have no idea. I don’t think Naomi Watts or Quvenzhane Wallis really have any semblance of a chance between them. Any of the other three (Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, or Emmanuelle Riva) could take it home and I’d say, “Yes, that seems about right.”

Preference: hmmm… maybe Riva! Lawrence should win someday for a better movie than Silver Linings Playbook, and she and Chastain both have decades to get here again. OK, talked myself into it. Emmanuelle Riva.

Lawrence took this one, clumsily and charmingly. I still think the movie was too slight to warrant an Oscar-winning performance, but I can’t really begrudge Lawrence anything. She even took a moment to wish her competitor, Emmanuelle Riva, a happy birthday! That’s a mark of a legitimately cool person.

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Preference: I don’t know. I loved De Niro’s performance in Silver Linings Playbook, but Philip Seymour Hoffman was mesmerizing in The Master. (In what was actually more of a lead actor performance in my opinion.) So I guess either of those dudes.

Waltz took it. Though I enjoyed his peformance in Django Unchained (a movie I finally saw the night before the Oscars), I found myself rooting for Hoffman at the last moment. What brilliant work he did there. Too bad for The Master.

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Preference: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (I guess-none of those performances blew me away, honestly)

Yep, Anne Hathaway won. She wore a terrible dress.

Best Director

Prediction: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Preference: Ang Lee, Life of Pi? Maybe Haneke. It’s hard to choose in these cases where the person I think actuallly deserved it – Kathryn Bigelow – wasn’t actually nominated.

Half the jokes in the telecast were about Ben Affleck’s nomination snub, while I still think the real snub story was Kathryn Bigelow. Neither of those heavyweights being available to take it—and Spielberg having alienated voters somehow, I guess, possibly with that final scene in Lincoln I had such problems with—it was a surprise win for the unassuming Ang Lee. I can’t begrudge that guy anything; his work is always technically proficient but also deeply emotional, much as Life of Pi was. (And it’s not like he hasn’t survived his own snubs; Lee’s Brokeback Mountain lost Best Picture to the laughable Crash in 2006.)

Best Original Screenplay

Prediction: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Preference: Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom

Tarantino won. It wasn’t a bad screenplay by any means, but I still think Moonrise Kingdom deserved it more.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prediction: Lincoln

Preference: Argo

Argo took it. Screenwriter Chris Terrio gave a lovely speech about solving problems with creativity instead of warfare. A great message, and an Oscar-appropriate one.

Best Animated Feature

Prediction: Brave

Preference: Brave – only one I saw, but I loved it enough that I bet it would remain my favorite of the five

Also the only one the voters saw, I bet! Also, they love to give awards to dudes in kilts.

Best Foreign Language Film

Prediction: Amour

Preference: Amour – well, it’s the only one I saw. No looks really good though; I’ll see that when it comes to Cleveland next month

Seeing fewer of the nominees gives me a better shot of guessing correctly. I was right here.

Best Documentary Feature

Prediction: Searching for Sugar Man

Preference: I didn’t see any of them, but The Invisible War is about a serious feminist issue (sexual assaults in the military), so I want that one

Ditto. Right here also.

Best Animated Short

Prediction: “Fresh Guacamole”

Preference: “Adam and Dog”

They went lighthearted, awarding “Paperman.”

Best Live-Action Short

Prediction: “Buzkashi Boys” if I’m being cynical, “Curfew” if the Academy is cool

Preference: “Curfew”

“Curfew”! Writer-director Shawn Christensen praised the little actress Fatima Ptacek for stealing the movie away from him, for “being so good nobody remembers [he] was in it.”

Best Documentary Short

Prediction: “Inocente”

Preference: “Redemption”

I was right here, “Inocente” won, and she was there. I was a bit disappointed to find she was visibly a few years older than she had been during the filming of the short, and dressed appropriately like a grown-up.

Best Original Song

Prediction: “Skyfall,” from Skyfall

Preference: “Skyfall” – And Adele’s going to perform it on the show so we ALL win

Which was more of a sure thing, Adele or Daniel Day-Lewis? They were both pretty much always going to happen. I do wish she had performed with Shirley Bassey, or immediately before or after, instead of both of them being marooned in different parts of the show.

Best Original Score

Prediction: Lincoln – never bet against John Williams

Preference: Skyfall – I don’t know, I just really like the way they weave in the classic Bond refrain

They went with Life of Pi here. Shrug. (P.S. I did not know at the time that Skyfall‘s composer, Thomas Newman, was on his eleventh nomination without a prior win. Really too bad.)

Best Cinematography

Prediction: Lincoln in one of its “sorry we aren’t giving you Best Picture” awards

Preference: I don’t know; Life of Pi looked beautiful, but an enormous amount of that was CGI. Django had some beautiful vistas. Skyfall, too. Oh, and those golden fields in Anna Karenina! I guess any of them would be OK besides Lincoln. Oh well.

Life of Pi here too, that being the surprise big winner of the evening, taking one more statue than even Argo did. Truly did not see that coming. Also, like Best Score, Cinematography had a perennial bridesmaid of a nominee in Roger Deakins, cinematographer of Skyfall. Ten nominations, two of them in the same year (2008) and zero wins.

Best Art Direction

Prediction: Les Miserables in one of its “sorry we aren’t giving you Best Picture” awards

Preference: Anna Karenina – this movie had a beautiful, imaginative look, partially realistic and partially staged

I always do so badly in the technicals. It went to Lincoln.

Best Editing

Prediction: Argo

Preference: Zero Dark Thirty! The tension this movie sustained over long periods of time was masterful.

This one was right.

Best Sound Editing

Prediction: Argo – meaning I have no idea

Preference: Zero Dark Thirty – have I mentioned that I really, really loved this movie? I don’t know, the sound was probably good.

An unusual tied award, going to the teams behind both Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty.

Best Sound Mixing

Prediction: Argo

Preference: Life of Pi – I assume this is the category where you reward whoever made us hear the sound of the tiger’s claws sticking in the canvas tarp. I loved that.

It was Les Mis here. For the record, I read sometime this past week that Sound Editing deals with the sound that was recorded on the set, and Sound Mixing deals with the post-filming audio tweaking. Or possibly it is the reverse.

Best Costume Design

Prediction: Mirror Mirror has the brightest and wildest of the stylized historical gowns

Preference: Anna Karenina, although I suppose dressing Keira Knightley to look glamorous is not a terribly difficult endeavor. But all the wintry fur hats and stuff! Excellent.

Preference was right; the only attention Anna Karenina got all night.

Best Makeup

Prediction: The Hobbit for the big hairy feet

Preference: Les Miserables, for the consumptive pale and rotten teeth

Again, preference, not prediction, was right.

Best Visual Effects

Prediction: The Avengers in a little nod to the highest grossing film of the year

Preference: Life of Pi for that freaky island

Yet again, preference was right. Maybe I need to quit assuming the Oscars will go for the obvious choice. (At least as far as technical awards are concerned. For acting, they still pretty much do.)

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